ANC Begins Coalition Talks After Poor Election Showing

The African National Congress (ANC) has started exploratory talks to finalise a postelection survival strategy after its poor showing in the local government elections. The national executive committee (NEC) of the ANC held a meeting in Boksburg to discuss coalition options and adopt a mandate for the party's coalition negotiators. Despite pressure for President Cyril Ramaphosa to resign, no one stood up to call for his resignation or for the NEC to be dissolved.

The ANC's national vote share dropped from 45.59% in 2021 to 30.76% in the November 4 local government elections, leaving the party negotiating from a weakened position across dozens of hung councils. Former president Thabo Mbeki urged the national leaders to take accountability for the poor show and go into opposition while they reflect and rebuild its structures and support base.

ANC spokesperson Mahlengi Bengu brushed off rumours about Ramaphosa's exit, insisting the party's top brass would not show him the door soon. "The president is going nowhere. There is no pressure on the part of this leadership for the president to leave," she told reporters. The NEC meeting is likely to deliver a formal response to the Democratic Alliance (DA), whom the ANC met on Wednesday.

The DA is pushing for a grand coalition with the ANC, but highly placed sources suggested the ANC would not agree to the DA's proposal to lead most South African metros. The outcomes of the coalition negotiations could also have a big impact on the government of national unity if the two parties forming the backbone of the government of national unity fail to agree.

According to insiders, three options were discussed at the NEC meeting: replicating the grand coalition model with the DA, teaming up with smaller parties such as ActionSA and the EFF, or stepping back from municipal power altogether and going into opposition. However, many NEC members dismissed going into opposition, warning that a similar retreat in Cape Town stripped the party of factionalism at the cost of long-term electoral irrelevance.

Rather than adopting a rigid national formula, the ANC is expected to revise its 2024 coalition framework in favour of municipality-by-municipality deals. Local dynamics, not a "one-size-fits-all" mandate, would guide negotiations. Marathon meetings between the MK party and the IFP happened on Thursday, while the SACP and EFF also held separate talks.

Political analyst Louw Nel noted that a DA-ANC pact in Gauteng could easily be replicated in Nelson Mandela Bay and Mangaung while helping both parties block the MK party from taking the mayoral chain in eThekwini. Parties are racing against a strict statutory clock, with all municipal councils required to hold their inaugural sittings and elect office-bearers by November 26.

Key points

• The ANC's poor showing in the local government elections has left the party negotiating from a weakened position across dozens of hung councils.
• The party is expected to revise its 2024 coalition framework in favour of municipality-by-municipality deals.
• A DA-ANC pact in Gauteng could be replicated in other metros, helping both parties block the MK party from taking mayoral chains.