Kenyan public affairs commentator Joseph Lister Nyaringo has raised concerns about President William Ruto's decision to rely on Oburu Oginga's Linda Ground camp to secure votes in Luo Nyanza for the 2027 elections. Nyaringo notes that in the 2022 elections, 700,000 Luo Nyanza voters stayed home despite ODM holding various positions. He questions whether Nyanza would wake up for Ruto simply because Oburu, Gladys Wanga, John Mbadi, or Opiyo Wandayi said so.
Nyaringo also points out that the ODM map has shrunk since Raila Odinga's death a year ago, and recently experienced violent tremors in Homa Bay, bringing back memories of the worst post-election bloodshed 20 years ago. He believes that leaders who turn to intolerant rhetoric that fuels violence mutilate Raila's legacy. With Raila's first anniversary marked, tremors are hitting the ODM orbit harder than ever, leaving uncertainty about the Odinga family's future alignment.
President Ruto handed lucrative dockets, including Finance, to Raila's largely Luoland wing of ODM, now led by Oburu under the Linda Ground camp, to lure Luo Nyanza for 2027. However, Nyaringo describes Oburu as indisposed and aged, lacking the ruthless instinct that made Raila a colossus. Ruto has less than a year to the election and is hunting numbers, which is why Linda Ground tempts him. On paper, it promises Luo Nyanza votes, but the numbers say the opposite.
Nyaringo notes that Luos are loud in campaigns but absent at the ballot, and some leaders sounding loyal to Ruto are transactional, chasing appointments, tenders, or harambees. They trade loyalty for gain, not votes, and failed Raila in the past. He advises Ruto to treat them with a pinch of salt and not rely on them without taming polarizing politics, which could cost him victory.
Under the guise of backing Ruto, some Luo leaders prove loyalty through intimidation. However, leaders like Babu Owino, Edwin Sifuna, George Natembeya, and Carol Omondi have every right to traverse Kenya undeterred. The recent attack on former Vice President Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka during his Ukombozi Alliance tour in Luo Nyanza paints the region as intolerant and alienates it from the rest of Kenya.
The Kamba voted for Raila in great numbers, and the least the region can show Kalonzo is tolerance and respect. However, some Luo leaders treat Raila's followers with different opinions as traitors, abusing them to make Ruto happy. Foul language dominates their pronouncements, and fallout is already visible. In Gusiiland, voters who once loved ODM see no reason to follow Oburu, and the ground has shifted to other leaders in various regions.
Nyaringo concludes that Oburu's ODM has lost significant ground in various regions, including Luhyaland, Nairobi, Kisii, Coast, Turkana, Maasailand, and North Eastern. The expulsion of Sifuna and Godfrey Osotsi alienated Luhyas, and an intact ODM would have been Ruto's muscle. Nyaringo questions how leaders from Luo Nyanza, alleged to be behind attacks on Linda Mwananchi and the Ukombozi coalition, can campaign for Ruto in other regions where Sifuna and Kalonzo hold sway.
Key points
- Analyst Joseph Lister Nyaringo questions President Ruto's strategy to secure Luo Nyanza votes through Oburu Oginga's Linda Ground camp.
- Nyaringo notes that Luos are loud in campaigns but absent at the ballot.
- Oburu's ODM has lost significant ground in various regions, including Luhyaland, Nairobi, Kisii, Coast, Turkana, Maasailand, and North Eastern.
