Airbus has released its latest market outlook, forecasting that the Middle East will require 3,830 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years. This projection is driven by an expected doubling of passenger traffic in the region by 2045. The growth in air travel demand, coupled with urbanization and significant investments in the aviation sector, solidifies the region's position as a global aviation hub.
The forecast includes 2,160 single-aisle aircraft and 1,670 wide-body aircraft needed by 2045. Airbus expressed confidence in the market's prospects despite current turbulence in the aviation sector. The current backlog of large single-aisle aircraft orders in the Middle East accounts for 45% of the total expected demand for this type of aircraft in the region over the next 20 years.
The Middle East is expected to see a compound annual growth rate of 4.7% in passenger traffic, surpassing current levels by 2045. Gabriel Simelas, Head of Airbus in the Middle East and Africa, highlighted the region's aviation market as one of the most vibrant globally. He noted that despite geopolitical fluctuations, airlines in the region have demonstrated operational resilience.
The growth in air travel is driven by rising disposable incomes, an increasing urban population, and the expansion of the middle class. By 2045, the average number of flights per person is expected to more than double in key markets. In Saudi Arabia, this number is projected to rise from 1.6 flights per person annually in 2025 to 4.0 flights, while in the UAE, it is expected to increase from 3.1 to 6.5 flights per person annually.
Significant investments in airlines, mega-projects, and airport infrastructure are reshaping the aviation landscape in the region. These developments are creating new aviation hubs and supporting long-term growth across the aviation ecosystem. According to Airbus estimates, by 2035, 97% of the Middle East's fleet will consist of new-generation aircraft, compared to 45% in 2025.
This rapid fleet modernization will yield substantial benefits in fuel efficiency, operational performance, and emissions reduction. The Middle East is also expected to play a growing role in the future of sustainable aviation fuels. With the support of sovereign investment strategies and ambitious aviation agendas, airlines and stakeholders in the region are working to establish the Middle East as a global hub for sustainable aviation fuel production.
The adoption of sustainable aviation fuels is crucial for achieving the sector's long-term sustainability goals. As the aviation industry continues to evolve, the Middle East is poised to remain at the forefront of innovation and growth. With a focus on efficiency, sustainability, and customer demand, the region is set to maintain its position as a key player in the global aviation market.
Key points
- The Middle East will need 3,830 new passenger aircraft by 2045.
- The region's passenger traffic is expected to double by 2045.
- New-generation aircraft will make up 97% of the Middle East's fleet by 2035.
