African CEOs are optimistic about cross-border trade in 2026, with 81.3% expecting their international activity to increase over the next year. This is according to the 2026 PAFTRAC Africa CEO Trade Survey, presented at the WTO Public Forum in Geneva. The survey, now in its sixth year, has expanded to over 2,500 respondents, making it the most comprehensive barometer of African executive sentiment on trade.
Intra-African commerce has become the top target destination for executives, surpassing China, Europe, and the United States. However, intra-African merchandise trade remains low, accounting for only 15-18% of total exports. Despite the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), this number has shown little change. The survey highlights a disconnect between the appetite for regional integration and the systems in place to facilitate it.
A significant barrier to trade is the financing gap, which goes beyond access to capital. African sovereign and institutional borrowers face high risk ratings from Western credit agencies, resulting in an estimated excess premium of $31 billion annually. According to Professor Patrick Utomi, Chairperson of PAFTRAC, this is due to outdated global rules and subjective rating methodologies that impose a "prejudice premium" on African trade.
The consequences of this financing gap are severe, with 57% of executives surveyed describing access to trade finance for cross-border transactions as difficult or very difficult. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) estimates that Africa's SME financing gap is over $331 billion. This lack of access to finance is a major obstacle to increasing cross-border trade in Africa.
The survey also highlights a divide between commercial goodwill and operational reality regarding the AfCFTA. While 70.2% of respondents report a tangible operational impact from AfCFTA-related reforms, awareness of the agreement's practical execution mechanisms is low. Over half of respondents are unfamiliar with the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), designed to facilitate intra-African transactions.
The lack of knowledge about AfCFTA's execution mechanisms is not limited to PAPSS. Respondents also show limited awareness of the E-Tariff Book, the African Trade Observatory, and the AfCFTA's non-tariff barrier reporting tools. This lack of understanding is a major bottleneck to implementing the AfCFTA and increasing intra-African trade.
The 2026 PAFTRAC Africa CEO Trade Survey provides valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities facing African businesses in 2026. With its large sample size and comprehensive scope, the survey is a key resource for understanding African executive sentiment on trade. Its findings highlight the need for improved access to finance, increased awareness of AfCFTA mechanisms, and more effective implementation of regional integration initiatives.
Key points
- 81.3% of African CEOs expect cross-border trade to expand in 2026
- Intra-African merchandise trade remains low, accounting for only 15-18% of total exports
- African businesses face a significant financing gap, with an estimated excess premium of $31 billion annually
