Africa's Renewable Energy Success Hinges on Operating Capacity

Africa's energy transition relies on more than just expanding solar farms and wind projects. It also depends on the continent's ability to manufacture, assemble, maintain, and recycle the technologies required to power these systems. Without stronger domestic industrial capacity, Africa risks expanding renewable energy deployment while remaining dependent on imported equipment and foreign supply chains. Several countries have made significant commitments to renewable energy manufacturing and green industrialisation, but their progress varies considerably.

Namibia's green hydrogen ambitions illustrate the difference between project development and commercial operation. Hyphen Hydrogen Energy is developing a proposed project valued at over $10 billion, targeting annual production of approximately two million tonnes of green ammonia at full scale. The African Development Bank selected the project for a prospective $5.93 million reimbursable grant to support development activities towards a Final Investment Decision. However, the project's timeline has been pushed to the end of 2027, meaning it remains in development rather than commercial operation.

Kenya offers a different example, with renewable electricity generation supported by geothermal, hydro, and wind resources providing a strong foundation for green industrialisation. Geothermal capacity stood at approximately 940-988 MW in recent official assessments, making Kenya Africa's leading geothermal producer. However, renewable electricity generation should not be confused with renewable technology manufacturing. KenGen's Olkaria Green Energy Park has attracted five investors across sectors, demonstrating industrial interest, but not establishing domestic solar panel manufacturing capacity.

The Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia are pursuing a regional battery value chain built around their mineral resources. Both countries have designated special economic zones to attract investment in battery production and related industries. However, an October 2026 assessment found that important investment-readiness challenges remain, including inadequate electricity, cross-border logistics constraints, regulatory uncertainty, and skills shortages.

Nigeria's solar panel assembly sector is advancing, with domestic manufacturing capacity increasing from approximately 120 MW to 300 MW over two years. This growth reflects the expansion of existing producers and the entry of additional manufacturing lines. However, capacity figures should not be mistaken for actual annual production. Tranos broke ground on an 800 MW-per-year solar panel factory in Ogun State in June 2025, but its first production line had not yet been commissioned.

The continental picture reinforces the scale of the challenge, with up to 94% of solar panels installed in Africa still imported from China. Africa's nominal solar panel manufacturing capacity is expected to reach approximately 3.5 GW in 2026, but factory capacity does not necessarily translate into equivalent production. Some manufacturing facilities in Egypt and Tanzania are oriented towards export markets, particularly the United States, rather than African buyers.

Morocco demonstrates the scale of investment being pursued in battery manufacturing, with the African Development Bank approving a €100 million loan for Gotion Power Morocco's proposed integrated lithium iron phosphate battery gigafactory. The project is expected to achieve a 70% local industrial integration rate. However, loan approval and project development should not be presented as evidence that the factory is already operational. Africa's renewable energy market is expanding, creating an opportunity to build domestic industries around the technologies driving that growth.

Key points

• Africa's renewable energy progress depends on operating capacity, not just announcements
• Domestic industrial capacity is crucial for Africa's energy transition
• The continent must build reliable infrastructure, technical skills, and competitive financing to capture a greater share of the economic value