A survey conducted by Yiaga Africa has found that 84% of Nigerians intend to vote in the 2027 general elections. The survey, titled "Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027," was based on interviews with 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory in September 2026. This represents an increase from 77% in the first round of the survey in December 2025 and 73% in the second round in March 2026.
Despite the high voting intentions, the survey revealed that many Nigerians have concerns that may prevent them from turning up at polling units. Fear of violence was identified as the single biggest barrier to voter participation, with 61% of respondents stating that it could prevent them from voting. Additionally, only 41% of respondents were likely to vote and very certain about their choice of candidate.
The survey also found a decline in public confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Only 34% of respondents expressed confidence that INEC would conduct credible elections, compared to 45% in each of the two previous rounds. Distrust in INEC was particularly high in the South-East (62%) and the South-South (57%).
However, citizens appeared to have greater confidence in election technology. 49% of respondents expressed trust in the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the electronic transmission of results through the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV). The survey also indicated that government performance and economic conditions would be decisive factors in determining voters' choices in 2027.
The survey noted that 54% of respondents disapproved of President Bola Tinubu's performance, while 71% rated the economy as poor or very poor. Younger Nigerians showed weaker voting intentions and higher levels of distrust in the electoral process.
Safiya Bichi, Yiaga Africa's Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, stated that Nigerians have not lost interest in elections, but several factors stand between their willingness to vote and actual participation. Bichi described low voter turnout in Nigeria as "a conversion problem, not an apathy problem," emphasizing that the responsibility for addressing these challenges rests with institutions and actors in charge of security, electoral credibility, and logistics.
Yiaga Africa has called on the Federal Government and security agencies to publish a threat-based national election security plan and prioritize high-risk areas. The organisation also urged INEC to make a public commitment to the real-time uploading of polling unit results and intensify confidence-building efforts in areas with low trust.
Key points
- 84% of Nigerians intend to vote in the 2027 general elections.
- Fear of violence and declining confidence in INEC may hinder voter participation.
- Government performance and economic conditions will be decisive factors in determining voters' choices in 2027.
