43% of Kenyans Blame Gachagua for Opposition Infighting - Poll

A new poll conducted by TIFA Research and Consulting has revealed that 43% of Kenyans attribute the infighting among opposition leaders to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. The survey, which interviewed 2,036 people face-to-face in their homes, found that Gachagua is the politician most often blamed for the divisions. The poll was conducted from October 26 to November 5, 2026, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 percentage points.

The poll also found that President William Ruto and his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) administration are seen as responsible for the opposition infighting by 15% of respondents. Other politicians, including Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i, received lower percentages of blame. The findings reflect public views of the divisions as political groups position themselves ahead of the August 2027 General Election.

The poll asked opposition supporters when their leaders should announce a joint presidential candidate and running mate. The results showed that 45% of respondents favored an announcement between January and March 2027, while 35% wanted the opposition to name its ticket before the end of 2026. A smaller percentage, 16%, preferred an announcement between April and June 2027, and 3% were unsure.

Despite differences over timing and leadership, most opposition supporters expressed optimism that the groups would unite ahead of the 2027 election. When asked about the likelihood of unity, 57% of respondents said it was "very likely," while 22% considered it "somewhat likely." Only 8% said unity was "not very likely," and 7% said it was "not likely at all."

The poll also found that opposition supporters have differing views on the timing of announcing a joint presidential candidate and running mate. TIFA Research and Consulting's lead researcher, Tom Wolf, released the findings on Thursday, noting that while a plurality of respondents preferred an announcement early next year, a substantial minority indicated that it should be done sooner.

The survey, which covered nine regions in Kenya, including Central Rift, Coast, and Nairobi, was conducted mainly in Kiswahili, with some interviews in English. The results suggest that many opposition supporters remain hopeful that their leaders will overcome competing ambitions and agree on a common position before the election.

Key points

• 43% of Kenyans blame Rigathi Gachagua for opposition infighting.
• Most opposition supporters expect the groups to unite ahead of the 2027 election.
• There are differing views on the timing of announcing a joint presidential candidate and running mate.