The World Bank has warned that 30% of jobs in Tunisia's agricultural sector could disappear by 2050 due to water scarcity and climate change. Agriculture is a significant sector in Tunisia, accounting for around 14% of national employment, and up to 50% of jobs in some rural areas. The sector also plays a crucial role in the country's food security, producing half of its wheat, 65% of secondary cereals, and 90% of its red meat.
Tunisia is facing a major economic and social risk due to water scarcity, with the country's water resources under significant pressure. The World Bank reports that Tunisia currently has around 380 cubic meters of renewable freshwater per inhabitant per year, which is well below the international threshold for absolute scarcity. Climate change and increasing demand are expected to exacerbate this pressure, posing a significant threat to the agricultural sector and the wider economy.
The impact of water scarcity on Tunisia's agricultural sector will not be limited to job losses. The World Bank warns that inaction on climate change could lead to a significant decline in agricultural production, with the sector's value-added expected to decrease by 29% by 2050. In contrast, the industrial sector is expected to see a 7% decline, and the services sector a 3% decline. This would have far-reaching consequences for the country's economy and food security.
The effects of water scarcity will not be confined to the agricultural sector or rural areas. The World Bank notes that the impact could be transmitted throughout the value chain, affecting the food industry, industries using agricultural raw materials, exports, and household incomes. Other sectors that rely on water, such as tourism and industry, could also be affected.
To mitigate these risks, the World Bank recommends that water management becomes a central element of Tunisia's economic policy. The country's "Plan Eau 2050" aims to invest around $900 million per year in water infrastructure until the mid-century mark. However, the World Bank emphasizes that investments in infrastructure must be accompanied by reforms to water governance, improved irrigation management, reduced network losses, and increased wastewater reuse.
For Tunisia, the challenge goes beyond just ensuring a stable water supply. The country must preserve its agricultural production capacity, rural jobs, and a significant part of its economic activity in the face of a rapidly diminishing resource. The World Bank's warnings highlight the need for urgent action to address the country's water scarcity and mitigate the impacts of climate change.
The Tunisian government faces a significant challenge in addressing the country's water scarcity and its impacts on the agricultural sector. With the country's water resources under severe pressure, the government must prioritize water management and invest in infrastructure, governance, and sustainable practices to ensure the long-term viability of the agricultural sector and the wider economy.
Key points
- 30% of Tunisian agricultural jobs are at risk by 2050 due to water scarcity and climate change
- Tunisia's water resources are under significant pressure, with only 380 cubic meters of renewable freshwater per inhabitant per year
- The World Bank recommends that water management becomes a central element of Tunisia's economic policy to mitigate the impacts of water scarcity
