A new voter intention survey by Yiaga Africa has revealed a significant gap between Nigerians' stated intention to vote in the 2027 general elections and their actual commitment to participating in the polls. The survey, which involved 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, found that 84% of respondents said they were likely or very likely to vote in the 2027 elections. However, only 41% of that group said they were certain and committed to voting.
The survey, conducted in September 2026, used a mixed approach to ensure that people without access to telephones, especially those in rural communities, were not excluded. Of the respondents, 2,066 were interviewed by telephone, while 404 were interviewed face-to-face. The Senior Manager and Head of Knowledge Management and Learning at Yiaga Africa, Safiya Bichi, said the survey aimed to provide a broader picture of Nigerians' attitudes towards the 2027 elections.
The survey found that a significant proportion of those who said they intended to vote had not yet decided which candidate they would support. According to Ms Bichi, 44% of the 84% who said they intended to vote had not yet settled on their preferred candidates. This presents political parties and candidates with a large pool of voters who could still change their preferences before the election.
The survey also revealed that between 6% and 10% of respondents were either disinterested or undecided about participating in the election. However, the latest figure represents an increase in overall voter intention compared with the first two rounds of the survey. Yiaga Africa said 77% of respondents indicated that they were likely to vote in the first NVIS, conducted in December, while the figure dropped to 73% in the second survey before rising to 84% in the third round.
Insecurity emerged as one of the most significant threats to voter participation, with 61% of respondents fearing that violence could prevent them from voting. The concern was particularly pronounced in the North-East, where 78% of respondents identified violence as a potential barrier to voting. The survey also found that 82% of respondents were very concerned that insecurity could affect the conduct of the elections.
The survey revealed declining confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), with only 34% of respondents saying they were confident in INEC ahead of the 2027 elections. This is down from 45% in each of the first two rounds of the NVIS. Confidence in INEC was particularly low in some regions, with 62% of respondents in the South-east expressing a lack of confidence in the electoral commission.
The survey also found that Nigerians had greater confidence in some technological components of the electoral process than in the institution administering the election. Improved security remained the strongest factor likely to motivate Nigerians to participate in the 2027 elections, with 83% of respondents saying it would motivate them to vote.
Key points
- 84% of Nigerians intend to vote in the 2027 elections, but only 41% are committed to doing so.
- Insecurity is a significant threat to voter participation, with 61% of respondents fearing violence could prevent them from voting.
- Confidence in INEC has declined, with only 34% of respondents expressing confidence in the electoral commission ahead of the 2027 elections.
