The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that 2027 could be the hottest year on record, driven by a strong El Niño event expected to intensify extreme heat. This warning comes as world leaders gather for the UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Turkey. WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo stated that El Niño acts as a "risk multiplier" that exacerbates heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms.
A recent WMO report on the state of the climate reveals that each of the last 12 years was the warmest since records began, with the last four years being the four warmest on record. The report also notes that the average surface temperature from January to September 2026 was about 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels worldwide, with a margin of uncertainty of 0.13 degrees. This suggests that the world may have exceeded the critical 1.5-degree threshold.
The WMO report highlights the devastating effects of extreme weather events around the globe this year. Preliminary estimates indicate that heatwaves, drought, and wildfires in Europe led to over 30,000 excess deaths. In India, extreme heat in April affected 146.5 million people, while more than 1,300 people died in the glacier collapse and flash flood in the Himalayas in August.
The report also notes that the global mean sea level reached a record high this year, which WMO experts believe may be linked to the El Niño climate phenomenon. This phenomenon shifts rainfall from the land to the sea. Additionally, climate change contributed to rising water levels, as glaciers worldwide lost over 400 gigatons of ice in 2025, corresponding to a sea level rise of one millimeter.
The developing El Niño event, expected to last into next year, is likely to be the strongest since 1950. WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo stated that this phenomenon causes extreme weather and rising temperatures. The additional energy, heat, and moisture from El Niño compound the existing risks of long-term climate change.
According to John Kennedy, Head of Climate Information at the WMO, El Niño events have become more frequent in the 20th and 21st centuries. However, he did not draw a direct link between this and climate change. The WMO report emphasizes that extreme weather events, which occur more frequently due to the climate crisis, have severe consequences worldwide.
The WMO's warning underscores the urgent need for climate action. As world leaders gather for COP31, the organization's findings serve as a stark reminder of the risks associated with climate change and the importance of mitigating its effects. The report's findings highlight the need for continued monitoring and analysis of climate trends to inform decision-making and policy development.
Key points
- The WMO warns that 2027 could be the hottest year on record due to a strong El Niño event.
- The world may have exceeded the critical 1.5-degree threshold, with the average surface temperature from January to September 2026 being 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
- Extreme weather events, intensified by climate change, have had devastating effects around the globe this year.
